So, last week we had the first official double elimination, losing Melissa and Louie. This week I am betting that Michael and Aaron will follow - unless there is some disaster with one of the other remaining competitors.
I have to confess I am focusing on the pros this season. Some of the pro dancers on DWTS have really become stars in their own right.
Kym was a champion on DWTS-Australia before she came to Hollywood. She has come close to winning here before, and I think has a real shot at it with Donny. There are some Donny-haters out there, and maybe some carryover from the weirdness that was Marie, but he has been a good performer and - though not an actor - is finding ways to express the different character of each dance. Kym is a very inventive choreographer and looks absolutely stunning on the floor, which I think has significantly helped each of her partners.
Dmitry was a standout on SYTYCD and has certainly established his bona-fides as a choreographer (Emmy nomination!). It's unfortunate that Len seems to really dislike him ... he has been as severe with Dmitry as he used to be with Derek. Maybe he will learn to love Dmitry (who seems to have given up on winning Len's approval, judging by the gimmicky jitterbug) in time to save Mya, who is far and away the most talented dancer among the celebrities this season.
Louis has been a fixture on DWTS and is responsible for a lot of the group and tour choreography. He has also done superb work choreographing for SYTYCD, where contestants often win or lose each week based on the routine they're given (there's much less of a "personality" effect on SYTYCD, where all the contestants are unknowns). Louis has a strong partner this season in Kelly, if she can stop overthinking. She has a lot of charm and he is choreographing with balance, playing up her natural strengths while at the same time challenging her.
Lacey, another SYTYCD alum, came in with a couple of disadvantages. It's easy to forget how young she is (should still be in college!). Plus, she's really short and has an athletic build, rather than a willowy slimness like Edyta, so even when Lacey creates one of her stupendous extensions, it doesn't have the same grace. And, I'm willing to bet she's got a bit of an inferiority complex going on. Her whole family works in dance, her brother actually won SYTYCD, and I wouldn't be surprised if DWTS approached Benji first. All that aside, Lacey did really well with Lance Bass, as well as anyone could have with Steve-O, and is starting to get into a groove with Mark. It's unfortunate that they didn't establish a better personal connection at the beginning, but I think she (like the voters, apparently) is starting to respond to his charm.
So, those are the four couples I think should be in the semifinal. I know Derek and Joanna are coming on strong, but she's a bit clunky and graceless, and I think he is overplaying his own fan appeal. Joanna shares the (apparently common) model's disadvantage of being "deceptively unfit." She is slim and toned and flexible, but her stability and strength are not good. Derek yanked her around effectively enough to "win" the mambo marathon, but the quality of her movement has not improved over the season so far and she is going to have to pull off something great to make me want to bounce Kelly!